El Niño is causing concern among experts and reigniting the debate over the upcoming coffee harvest

The possibility of a strong El Niño in the coming months dominated discussions on Tuesday (June 23) at a meeting organized by the Coffee Department of the Brazilian Rural Society (SRB). According to experts, this climate phenomenon is currently the main risk factor for the 2027/28 harvest, especially during the flowering season of coffee plantations in Brazil and Vietnam.

Against a backdrop of historically low global stocks, even projections of a record harvest do not allay market concerns. The coffee market could not withstand another climate crisis. There are not enough stocks to absorb additional climatic adversities.

The intensity of El Niño will be decisive for price and sales trends in the coming months. If the climate change appears to worsen, sales will be held off, which by logic has an impact on prices. 

The phenomenon typically causes dry spells during the Brazilian summer, a scenario that can delay rains and compromise the development of coffee plantations.

This concern takes on greater significance in light of the global supply situation. The reduction in demand caused by inflation helped balance the market in 2025. No other country is seeing an increase in production: Colombia and Peru are reducing their supply, Vietnam is producing around 30 million bags, and Central America cannot meet market demand.

For experts, the only certainty is that global stocks remain tight. 

Some market estimates may be overestimating the country’s production potential. 

According to Procafé Foundation, there are methodological limitations of the surveys. A large portion of the estimates is still based more on planted area than on actual productivity measurements. 

The consensus, however, is that weather patterns in the coming months will remain the key variable for the market.